About Those Polls – Manipulating Public Opinion and Voter Apathy

Thursday, February 27 is the last day to vote in the Provincial Election - get the information you need at https://www.engagebarrie.org/provincial-election-2025

Our last Provincial Election, in 2022, had the lowest voter turnout in election history, at only 43% - this means that only about 18% of eligible voters voted for the current government, which nevertheless was handed a majority government.

Whether or not you are happy with the current government, we all should be able to agree that a party with 18% support should not end up with 100% control.

We haven't been able to find it again (please send us the source if you know it!), but we recently saw a graphic that if "Apathy" was a political party in 2022, it would have gotten 57% of the votes. With so many issues at stake in that election, how did "Apathy" become the winner?

There are many reasons, of course, but the one we'd like to talk about here is polling. Because in the past month, we've heard far too many variations on the theme of "what's the point? I know my choice won't win", or "I've seen the polls, and my vote will never count".

First off: YOUR VOTE ALWAYS COUNTS

Secondly: Don't pre-concede your vote, because the only way your vote doesn't count is IF YOU DON'T USE YOUR VOTE

Just because the person you voted for didn't win (and heck, that's going to be a lot of us, with six candidates in each of the Barrie ridings this time around) doesn't mean your vote doesn't count. Even with our first-past-the-post system, the winners can see whether they had a wide or narrow margin, which will influence their behaviour in office (if only for the cynical motivation of wanting to hang on to power the next time around).

But, most importantly (and in keeping with this post's title), you need to ask yourself WHY you feel your vote won't count. Could it possibly because of polling results?

What if we told you how many times the polls got it dead wrong? What if we told you that polling results are becoming increasingly unreliable?

What if you looked a little more closely at who asked for the poll you're looking at? At who conducted it? At how it was conducted? At when it was conducted? At when it was released? And by whom? And with what headline? At all the ways that polling can and has historically been weaponized by political parties?

Polls don't just reflect public opinion, they can be used to actively SHAPE it - including making people believe that their vote won't count, that they might as well give up, that taking a few minutes out of election day to exercise their democratic right isn't worth the effort.

TL:DR - Polls can be manipulated in myriad ways to sway public opinion and orchestrate voter apathy

How is it that EVERY major brand of toothpaste is able to claim that four out of five dentists recommend their brand over the others? The math ain't mathing...

But just who were those five dentists? Were there five? Fifty? Five hundred? Five thousand? Were they just random dentists called from the phone book? (Remember the phone book, kids?) Were they dentists who had already signed up for that particular brand's newsletter? Were they dentists who had entered into a sponsorship deal with the brand? Knowing the sample size and makeup can tell you a lot of things about that particular poll.

How were people brought into the polling sample? Because if it was by phone, the sample population is automatically limited to people who answer the phone for an unknown number, and agree to answer random questions from strangers. If it was by website, the sample population is limited to people who like to answer internet polls, and/or those who were selected by "the algorithm". What's the algorithm?

How was the question posed? Was it a leading question? Did the question itself contain misinformation or an unqualified bias? What sort of answers were allowed? Would the answer to the question have been more nuanced if people had been able to answer something other than "yes" or "no"?

The media LOVE sharing the results of polls - especially when they're cash-starved and someone else has already "done the research". But declaring one candidate's win as inevitable can have one heck of a psychological effect on voters. Who doesn't want to back a winner, right? If everybody prefers toothpaste A, that's gotta be the best one, no?

Maybe it is, maybe it isn't.

As your parents probably told you many times as a kid, just because everyone's doing something doesn't mean it's the best choice for you.

Also, while we're on the topic of media: WHO OWNS THE MEDIA SOURCE YOU'RE GETTING YOUR INFORMATION FROM? Far too many Canadian media outlets these days are owned by U.S. and other media groups - do they really have our best interests at heart, or are they trying to push their own agenda, and/or bump up their own bottom line?

And what's the headline? It's a common campaign technique to wait to release poll results until they can be used to elicit a certain reaction - whether it be to get supporters out canvassing, to get out the vote, to start the social media frenzy, or to get you to give up and stay home on election day.

Poll results can also be used to manufacture momentum - which is why it's especially important to look at the timing of when a poll was conducted and when it was released. The timing of the results release may imply a completely opposite trajectory to the timing of the data-gathering!

What to Consider When Interpreting a Poll

Does the poll cite its sampling methods?
Does the poll report their margin of error?
Who funded the poll?
What is the exact wording of the question(s) asked?
- Were they neutrally worded?
When was the poll conducted, and when was it released?

Bottom Line: VOTE!!!

Vote for the candidate who most closely fits your values.

Or vote strategically against the candidate whose values you abhor - there are several websites that will help you make that decision. BUT, keep in mind that those sites rely on... you guessed it, POLLING - so look closely at who's created the sites, how they came to their decisions, how they line up with your own values, etc.

Voting is just one of the ways in which the public can have their voices heard at the government level (but it's a biggie). USE YOUR VOICE!!!

Whether your candidate wins or not, you can keep using your voice on February 28. But please, if you haven't already, cast your vote before 9pm on February 27. We've compiled the information you need at https://www.engagebarrie.org/provincial-election-2025

Five out of five dentists agree - it's time to exercise your democratic right to have a say in who gets elected to represent you in the Province of Ontario!

If you like to geek out on polling science as much as we do, here are a few pages:

How do Political Polls Work? (Caltech): https://scienceexchange.caltech.edu/topics/voting-elections/political-polls-science

How to Avoid Getting Misled by Polls (BBC): https://www.bbc.com/news/newsbeat-35351527

Why Election Polling Has Become Less Reliable (Scientific American): https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/why-election-polling-has-become-less-reliable/ (discussing the U.S. presidential election, but the reasons why polling is less reliable is applicable to every country)

How Polls Influence Behaviour (Stanford): https://www.gsb.stanford.edu/insights/how-polls-influence-behavior

Election Polls are Only 60 Percent Accurate, Which is 0% Surprising (UC Berkeley): https://alumni.berkeley.edu/california-magazine/online/election-polls-are-only-60-percent-accurate-which-0-percent/#